The Back Office - guides
How long until a cafe breaks even?
The honest answer is 4-6 months to monthly break-even and 18-36 months to pay back the build - if the lease was right. Modeled ranges from a working multi-unit operator, labeled as such.
Two break-evens people confuse
Monthly break-even is when revenue covers the month's costs - usually month 4-6 for a well-sited shop. Payback break-even is when cumulative profit covers the build cost - usually year 2-3 on a second-gen space, longer on a raw buildout. First-timers celebrate the first and forget the second exists.
The monthly break-even math
Fixed costs (rent, base labor, insurance, software) for a typical small shop: ~$28k/month. Contribution margin per transaction after COGS: about $6.60 on a $9.50 ticket. Break-even = $28,000 / $6.60 = ~4,250 transactions a month, or ~142 a day. Every shop should know its number to the transaction. It takes ten minutes and it changes every decision.
What moves the date
| Factor | Moves break-even by |
|---|---|
| Rent at 10% vs 16% of revenue | Months. This is the big one. |
| Second-gen vs raw buildout | A year of payback, easy |
| Owner working the bar vs hired manager | ~$4-5k/month of labor |
| Soft-open discipline | Weeks of ramp - broken systems cost full-price customers |
| Reviews velocity in the first 90 days | The ramp itself. 50 reviews changes the curve. |
The runway rule
Budget 4-6 months of full burn as runway - not "savings," a line item. If the shop hits 142/day in month 3, runway comes home. If it does not, runway is what lets you fix the shop instead of closing it. The startup cost calculator builds this line in automatically, and the playbook's first-90-days chapter is the week-by-week plan for hitting the number. The letter below gets it first.